Operators, product owners, and people affected by the forecasting decision.
Classical ML · weeks 9
Forecasting & temporal ML
Regional demand shifts through promotions, holidays, and drift.
Opening production brief
A measurable problem, before a model.
forecast origin, seasonal naive, lag features, rolling backtests with version, owner, event time, and availability contracts.
Regional demand shifts through promotions, holidays, and drift. Every solution must state latency, cost, capacity, and fallback limits.
Offline evidence plus a deployable resolution: Rolling validation, statistical baselines, boosted forecasts, and uncertainty bands.
Frame and baseline
Turn the production problem into explicit data, metric, and baseline contracts.
- 01↗
Forecast contracts and naive models
Use forecast contracts and naive models to move the forecasting production brief toward a defensible release.
65–90 min · checkpoint · deterministic lab - 02↗
Trend, seasonality, and known-future signals
Use trend, seasonality, and known-future signals to move the forecasting production brief toward a defensible release.
65–90 min · checkpoint · deterministic lab
Build and stress
Formalize the machinery, test counterexamples, and expose system limits.
- 03↗
Backtesting without time travel
Use backtesting without time travel to move the forecasting production brief toward a defensible release.
65–90 min · checkpoint · deterministic lab - 04↗
Statistical and ML forecasters
Use statistical and ml forecasters to move the forecasting production brief toward a defensible release.
65–90 min · checkpoint · deterministic lab
Resolve and operate
Join model behavior to architecture, observability, rollout, and rollback.
- 05↗
Intervals, drift, and forecast operations
Use intervals, drift, and forecast operations to move the forecasting production brief toward a defensible release.
65–90 min · checkpoint · deterministic lab - HW↗
Regional demand forecast
Build a 24-hour pipeline with naive, statistical, and boosted baselines plus interval forecasts.
Rubric · staged hints · reference resolution
Prerequisite guidance
3 concepts make this faster.
Prerequisites are guidance, never hard gates.